RFCI Score Explained

What is RFCI Score?

RFCI (Reach Factor & Confidence Index) score is a system used to estimate the future of a topic while it is still in its polar trend stage.

In some cases, the RFCI score is also used to judge the ‘quality’ of a topic that is already trending (out of the polar trend stage) or has already been mainstream for a while.

The RFCI score explicitly tells you how mainstream the topic is expected to become, whether or not it will be impactful, and how quickly it is accelerating toward its estimated level of ‘mainstream’.

Note: RFCI scores will vary for every topic depending on who is estimating it. Every source uses a different method for calculating RFCI, so take it with a grain of salt when the source is untrustworthy.

The RFCI score is broken into 3 components:

How Widespread the topic is predicted to be
How quickly it is accelerating to reaching ‘mainstream’ level
Impact on the world

‍

Widespread Tiers:

This part of the RFCI score tells you how ‘mainstream’ the topic is expected to become. Mind you, this is just an estimation decided by whoever is predicting the polar trend.

Tier	Meaning	Examples from Different Fields / Topics
1 & 2	Universal	AI Smartphones Internet Social media (concept as a whole) Music Fast food restaurants Pop music Perfumes Air travel Pizza The words “hot”, “rizz”, and short-lived neologisms Memes (concept as a whole) Shampoo T-shirts All types of ovens Sliced bread
3	Popular	Wireless headphones Clubbing EDM music Protein powders Air fryers Rubik’s cube solving Anime Crypto Streetwear
4	Broad-Interest	Samsung Galaxy Buds Mechanical keyboards Neon LED room lighting Tech YouTubers (concept) Audiophile culture Biohacking Car modding
5	Niche / Hyper-niche	Nootropic stacks Vaporwave music Exotic car appraisal specialists Shift-knob collectors Obscure coin-roll hunters Wet shaving with vintage safety razors

‍

Acceleration

This is how quickly the topic is taking off, at the time of detecting it.

Starting from 0% = This topic is showing minimal signs of growth in popularity. Definitely isn’t a polar trend and also unlikely pre-polar trend stage.

To 100% = this topic is taking off so quickly that it is probably no longer a polar trend by the time you’re seeing it

‍

Impact

This is self explanatory. This part of the RFCI score tells you if the topic will have a significant effect on the state of the world, and if so, to what extent.

Letter	Meaning	Examples
A	Transformative	Artificial intelligence CAR-T cell therapy Cryonics & longevity biotech experiments SpaceX reusable rockets Vaccines / modern medicine Space travel The Internet Global supply-chain automation
B	Highly Impactful	Public education 3D-printed organs research Credit scores Fitness & diet culture Kubernetes deployments
C	Helpful	Grocery lists Umbrellas Headphones Cold plunges Weighted pens for calligraphy Meal-prep services
D	Marginal	Memes (as a concept) Motivational wallpapers Cheap temporary trends Custom phone cases House Christmas light decorations Hardstyle music

‍

Examples:

Example 1 - Discovering AI chatbots in early 2022 when ChatGPT released their GPT3 API

What would have been considered a ‘correctly predicted’ RFCI score: 1-80%-A

Why?

1- because literally every business individual uses some sort of AI tech directly in some way now. Previously AI was integrated into a lot of software like google, Adobe etc…, but not like the way it is now. Thanks to chatbots, literally any sort of entity uses the same ‘chatbot’ interface style to use AI.

80 - because at this time, a lot of tech companies were integrating OpenAI’s API so much to the point where they became reliant on OpenAI. Note that at this time, ChatGPT hadn’t even been released to the public yet.

A - because it is a transformative subject. The world has not been the same since the AI boom.

‍

Example 2 - Discovering peptides in late 2024

What would have been considered a ‘correctly predicted’ RFCI score at this time - 3.5-50%-A

Why?

3.5 - because it's a very niche topic. Yes it’s popular, but popular within a certain niche of people - looksmaxers, bodybuilders etc…. You don’t go see most people injecting peptides into them every day do you?

50% - At this time, peptides were getting talked about more and more, but not enough to the

‍